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Post by Alexander on Feb 25, 2022 19:59:13 GMT -6
The Final Phase is a phase spoken of by Anatoliy Golitsyn, a KGB defector who fled to the West and told the Americans of a "long-range policy" that the KGB had created.
This long-range policy had supposedly been decided upon in 1960 and was to span several decades.
It was to be one of the greatest strategic deceptions in history, according to Golitsyn.
Golitsyn wrote that the worldwide communist bloc would feign a weakening and "liberalization", in order to receive credits and technology from the West.
This period was to be used for the re-arming and development of the communist militaries.
China and Russia were to pretend that they were divided and had a feud. This came to be known as the "Sino-Soviet Split" by Western analysts, who took the bait hook, line, and sinker.
After a sufficient period of development and after the military and economic balance of power had swung back in their favor, the communist nations were to reunite in "one clenched fist", according to Golitsyn.
Then, they would strike and defeat the West, ultimately ushering in a "worldwide federation of communist states".
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Post by mrkrenden on Feb 26, 2022 10:25:56 GMT -6
Analysis for the Sake of Convenience By J.R.Nyquist National intelligence and grand strategy are not subjects for the weak-willed or the weak-minded. And yet, choosing its intelligence analysts from the academic groves of our left-professors, setting them up as cloistered bureaucrats, the U.S. government has brought us intelligence analysis as pandering and a national grand strategy based on wishful thinking. If there is a serious problem in the world, like the future intentions of the ruling Chinese Communist Party in Beijing, you won’t hear a worst-case assessment from the boys at CIA or DIA. These smart fellows know enough to take their lead from American political culture, from their former professors. They derive their epistemology from the shopping mall regime, their ethics from television, and their integrity from politicians. These are the same politicians who don’t want to say that Communists rule China. The “C” word is not to be used. It’s one of those negatives, when closely considered, that might suggest our trade policy with China is stupid and dangerous. Read more at: www.financialsense.com/contributors/jr-nyquist/analysis-for-the-sake-of-convenience
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907ie
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Post by 907ie on Feb 26, 2022 16:31:34 GMT -6
Golitsyn's Methodology and the Trump Administration Commentary for 20 February 2017 JR Nyquist The new methodology provides explanations for many contradictions and anomalies in the communist world on which the old methodology throws no light. It explains the confidence of the communist world and the loyalty and dedication of the vast majority of its officials. It explains the reasons for disclosures of information by the communist world about itself and relates them to the requirements of long-range policy. It explains the seeming tolerance of a totalitarian system toward dissension openly expressed by its citizens in their contacts with foreigners. It provides criteria for assessing the reliability of sources, for distinguishing genuine secret agents and defectors from provocateurs, for distinguishing genuine information from disinformation and propaganda. It provides pointers to the identification of agents of influence in the West. It suggests that disinformation, recognized as such, can provide clues to the intentions of its authors. It offers guidance on the relative importance of the official and unofficial communist sources. It diverts attention from spectacular communist polemics between parties and focuses it instead on the solid advances in the groundwork of communist cooperation and coordination. It points the way to recovery from the crisis in Western studies and assessments of communism. It could help to revive the effectiveness of Western security and intelligence services. It explains the communist victory in the Vietnam War despite the Sino-Soviet split. Above all, it explains the willingness and ability of the communist world, despite the appearance of disunity, to seize the initiative and to develop and execute its strategies in relation to the United States, the other advanced industrial countries, and the Third World in the quest for the complete and final victory of international communism. -Anatoliy Golitsyn, New Lies for Old, p. 102 What would Anatoliy Golitsyn, the KGB defector who correctly anticipated the fake collapse of communism, say about the Trump administration? I believe he would say that the communist strategists have launched a new provocation based upon a supposed split between the communist-dominated U.S. Democratic Party and (Soviet) Russia. This supposed split offers some tantalizing tactical advantages to the communist side. It diverts attention from the extensive and treasonous collaboration of the American Left with Russia and the communist bloc. It also helps to camouflage future collaboration on the part of Trump's critics. (People who warn of Russian interference with the elections will not be scrutinized too carefully themselves in this regard, especially by a media that is packed with communist operatives). To say that Trump is a Russian puppet diverts attention from the fact that those leveling the accusation have served Russia and the communist cause for many years. It weakens the authority of a president who has promised to reverse the many policies of national self-negation which have been the mainstay of the Democratic Party, and the watchword of the Republican establishment. Meanwhile, Barack Obama continues to relay commands to his leftist cadres within the U.S. Federal Government. This is why he stayed in Washington. For all intents and purposes, he is still president; that is, he is the commander-in-chief for the communists in Washington. Their conspiracy continues, as ever, toward the "inevitable" convergence of capitalism with communism (on communist terms). It is important (from the communist point of view) that nobody guess the actual situation, that nobody see how far the subversion has gone, or how powerful the communist side has become within the state. While Obama was U.S. President an identical circumstance played out in Washington as in Moscow. In both capitals the communists were depicted as an inconsiderable and irrelevant minority. In reality, the presidents of both countries were committed communists. The levers of power were in their hands, and the world suspected nothing. While Obama worked to disarm the United States, Putin worked to rearm Russia. While Obama undercut our allies abroad, Putin invaded Crimea and intervened in the Middle East. As the danger grew, as Hillary Clinton was sure to be the next and final president, the collaboration between Washington and Moscow was guaranteed to result in America's defeat. But then a miracle happened. Donald Trump was elected president; a man of impeccable nationalist instinct, of remarkable courage in the face of the enemy. The communists were aghast at his victory. And so, strange as it seems, they decided on a preposterous fraud. While they posed as Russia's enemies, Donald Trump would be depicted as Russia's friend. For the leading communists to deny their communist affiliation was a preliminary strategic step in both Washington and Moscow. Freed from the label of what they had actually been, the communists were able to advance without opposition from those annoying anti-communists. And now they are compelled by the logic of their false position to paint the "patriotic American dinosaur" (Donald Trump) as Russia’s puppet. Here the real puppet points to the man and declares that he is the puppet. It is a history-making deception. It is grand and it is bold. It cynically estimates the ignorance of the populace, the corruption of the political class, and the willing treachery of the media. It relies on the fact that the smartest strategists and analysts on the American side have been sidelined or murdered. So there is nobody to call out the truth. Who now dares say the truth about what has happened in this country? Anyone writing in this vein is committing career suicide. Therefore, only someone without a career would dare to write along these lines at all! Even then it means being assigned to a death list, like Anna Politkovskaya and Alexander Litvinenko. (You want a successful career? You want to live? Sing the tune that is assigned. Play a role out of the communist script. You can be a conservative if you wish, but you will be Moscow’s conservative.) Of course, you probably think I am crazy. You think communism went away in 1991. You think that communism no longer exists. But then you will have to explain how we got here – with communist thugs using open intimidation on the streets of our cities! If communism lost the Cold War, why does it presently hold such power in government agencies, universities and newspapers? Why do you think U.S. counterintelligence is spying on the President of the United States and his staff? Who wants to bring him down? You need to explain all the variable phenomena of today: from the communist-inspired economic sabotage of global warming "science" to the insistence that our border remain a sieve. It is only our enemies who stand to gain from these policies. But communism is dead. Nobody believes in it anymore. We are told that the last true believer in communism was Stalin’s protégé and USSR Communist Party Ideology Chief Mikhail Suslov. Gorbachev and Yeltsin, and other top Soviet officials, made a show of abandoning communism. But I tell you it was only a show. Former KGB officer Anatoliy Golitsyn insisted that all communist sources of information are larded with falsehood; that communist officials publicly and privately make misleading statements about themselves, their thoughts and their intentions. What do we actually know about the thinking of Mikhail Suslov or Mikhail Gorbachev (for that matter)? We only know what Communist Party officials say is true – about themselves and their party. And communists lie! There is also a more subtle point, which may seem contradictory, but is fundamental at the non-ideological level: It is irrelevant what Suslov or Gorbachev believed. Their personal beliefs would be decisive only if Marxism had been a mere belief system, if it represented a stable set of principles; but Marx himself did not believe in Marxism. He laughed at people who believed in it. Why would it matter if Suslov also did not believe? What is decisive to understand about Marxism is its ever-shifting role as a rationale for a new kind of power. What is important here is not the particulars of the rationale itself, but the spirit which calls forth the rationale in the first place. If we want to understand how the great totalitarian machine is able to morph and shift and change with the times, we must go to its soul. At bottom Marxism is a strategy behind which stands a pathological desire for absolute power and global destruction. The outward phenomenon of Marxism is merely the intellectual camouflage of the politically self-actualized psychopath. Here is the outward expression of his rationalization for murder, for seizing power. This outward expression has changed time and time again, but its spiritual essence is always the same. And we always seem to miss the point of it. We always seem to address the inner thoughts and intentions of people who are assumed to believe or not believe in a set of “principles.” But this is an error. We do not understand these people at all! The communist does not take ideas seriously. He is serious only about power and strategy. A mask is not an idea. A strategy is not a principle. These are tools, weapons, methods. Marx did not believe in his tools. He used them, and his followers used them, until the tools of the hour no longer served their purpose. Then the old tools, the old weapons, were discarded for a new set of weapons – “new lies for old.” Those who talk about belief or disbelief are only talking about the superficial shell of the thing, which can be replaced with a new shell – a new outward appearance. If Marx did not believe in Marxism, then the true Marxist should not believe in it either. It is a sorry swindler who believes in his own swindle. Behind the shell of the communist's outward pretenses we find the same core phenomenon: the malevolent soul of the destroyer, the envious lusting for power and revenge, the hatred of the good for being the good. And in this soul’s self-affirmation we find, curiously, a reformulation of the same old totalitarian themes; the same old bag of tricks for debasing and leveling humanity. All that being said, the outward shell of the supposedly debunked Marxism is by no means out of the game. Out-and-out communism could return to power at any time. The various outer shells – the rationales and swindles – may change and shift as circumstances require; yet the driving force from within remains ever constant, ever alert to new opportunities. Marxism is strategy, not belief. That is why Mao Zedong said, “Marxism is better than a machine gun.” One does not believe in a machine gun. One uses it, merely, to neutralize an enemy. One must keep in mind the usefulness, in this regard, of ideological mortars and howitzers and atomic bombs – the whole arsenal of political correctness. But you cannot get over this idea; namely, that communism is dead. You saw it die on TV. How can we talk once again about Marxism-Leninism? Or as an Estonian presidential candidate once asked in response to my discourse: “What’s Marxism-Leninism?” His pained expression relayed the idea that Marxism-Leninism was something that didn’t really exist. Nobody believed in it, so why did it matter? Even the communists don’t believe in communism anymore. It’s as simple as that! Any idiot who tells you that there are true-believing communists should wear a dunce cap. Russia a democracy. China is capitalist. Cuba is an open society with superb health care. And that nice little North Korean man is a champion of world peace! It is merely one more ridiculous proposition out of many. In fact, it is the final ridiculous proposition. It is the proposition that crushes man's soul. To say that communism doesn’t exist is to surrender. It means giving up your country to the communists who don't exist. Remember the Ministry of Truth from George Orwell’s 1984? It was a ministry that dispensed nothing but lies. Now imagine if the Ministry of Truth disbanded itself and admitted to lying. “We are turning over a new leaf,” says the Ministry of Truth. “We are now the Ministry of the Real Truth.” Oh, it’s such a relief! Finally, we can believe in them! Marxism-Leninism is gone and the Marxist-Leninists are now honest! If they say we won the Cold war, we won the Cold War. In a world where nonsense is often believed, why would this nonsense not be accepted as the New Gospel (according to Saint Gorbachev)? The hammer and sickle comes down, the tricolor goes up. How could you question that? It’s like being against chocolate! So where did all the communists go? Did they simply revert to Christianity? Did they become Scientologists? Stop and think for a moment. You control half the planet and you’ve been fooling people in every country for decades. And what do you do for an encore? You fall off the edge of the flat earth! Well, I guess they topped themselves after all. And then, twenty-five years later, suddenly, you discover they have taken over your child’s mind and sent him into the street to beat up an old displaced factory worker wearing a hat which says, “Make America Great Again.” You have the CIA and FBI spying on the President of the United States to the advantage of change agents. And Congress is dragging its feet on Trump’s cabinet nominees because they’ve been honey-trapped by the Satanic Pedophile communist zombie apocalypse. It is real Satanism, real pedophilia, real undead communists, and a real apocalypse. Have you ever seen the movie Invasion of the Body Snatchers? It’s an allegorical fiction about a communist takeover. Well, we’re living it. In fact, the pod people are attempting to convince the world that they are the ones fighting the alien invasion! This lie is repeated on every news channel. And you might easily believe them: First, because you did not understand who the enemy was. Second, because you don’t believe in pod people. Third, because you voted pod people into the White House in 1992, 1996, 2008 and 2012. And when the pod people finally colonized your government and rotted out your nuclear arsenal, the old pod president didn’t go back to Illinois. He remained in Washington to command the pod-people army inside the federal government, while Mr. Trump erroneously believes himself to be in charge. So they don’t believe in Marxism-Leninism anymore? So why do we have socialized medicine? And why does Vladimir Lenin, who died in 1924, lie calmly with his eyes closed in his mausoleum on Red Square – not buried in a grave with a stone marker? No doubt, he is kept on display in Moscow because “nobody there believes in him anymore”! It’s a funny kind of not-believing in someone, don’t you think? Nobody in Moscow believes in communism! They refuse to bury Lenin because he makes a nice tourist attraction. And besides, Vladimir Putin wears a cross and says he believes in God. (Well, he doesn’t really like to talk about it. But we think he believes in God.) And so, at the end of the day, we are all Kremlin puppets. We are all bouncing helplessly at the end of Moscow’s string. Even now the puppet-master appears to be at odds with his most secret creatures – the moles at CIA and FBI! Appearances notwithstanding, the puppeteer must always hide the puppet’s strings. This he accomplishes by a diversion in which he calls the man (Trump) a puppet and the puppet (Obama) he calls a man. And so, as well, he calls his friend enemy and his enemy he calls friend. If President Trump could read one paragraph of these scribblings, I would wish that he read this last paragraph. Then he might understand, in an instant, who his enemies are – both foreign and domestic. And I say, that enemy is not an opponent, not a competitor, not a business rival. No, no. I mean – an enemy! And once our president can tell friend from foe, his strategic compass will align to true north and half the battle will be won. END www.jrnyquist.com/golitsyn-s-methodology.html
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907ie
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Post by 907ie on Feb 26, 2022 16:57:23 GMT -6
The Wilderness of Mirrors Revisited: How I got here J.R. Nyquist 08.15.01 Twenty years ago I was browsing in a book store for something different to read. As chance would have it, I happened upon David C. Martin's "Wilderness of Mirrors." It was about James J. Angleton, head of CIA counterintelligence and a KGB defector named Golitsyn. Here was something worth knowing about. The subject touched on the essentials of spycraft, global strategy and leadership. The title was intriguing. So I bought the book and read it cover to cover. It was easier to follow than I thought, given the intricate subject matter. Obviously, Martin was deeply skeptical of Angleton and his favorite KGB defector, Major Anatoliy Golitsyn. Golitsyn had defected to the West in December 1961 bringing dark news of high level Soviet agents (i.e., "moles") inside NATO and the CIA. Golitsyn had worked in Soviet counterintelligence. It was obvious that he had memorized many top secret NATO documents. How could he have seen these documents? Simply put, the West was thoroughly penetrated by communist bloc agents. That was the obvious answer, but a politically unacceptable one. To make matters worse, it seems that Golitsyn did not show proper respect for the CIA's sophomoric methods. This did not win friends and influence people. The first public personification of Golitsyn offered to Americans adds color to this picture. Alfred Hitchcock's movie, entitled "Topaz," was based on Golitsyn's defection. Golitsyn is quite negatively portrayed in Hitchcock's movie as contemptuous and arrogant. As I read Martin's book I did not think so much of Angleton's misjudgments and missteps, or Golitsyn's contagious paranoia. These epiphenomena are no doubt produced by longstanding emersion in intelligence work. I had no reason to distrust Martin's points about too much suspicion in the wrong place. What bothered me was the dismissive attitude toward Golitsyn. Imagine a police detective without feelings of suspicion. How could he do his job? The same applies to counterintelligence officers. Certainly, some allowances must be made, and some attempt is long overdue to come to grips with the reality of Russian/communist penetration of American institutions. Martin seemingly had little sympathy in regarding those concerned with a real threat. I was intrigued that in his view, the danger came from the CIA, from men like Angleton. Okay, yes, there is some truth here. But one must go further, I thought. As an example of the way Martin treated Angleton, consider the following passage: "Whether or not the KGB ever succeeded in penetrating the CIA, it had at the very least infiltrated Angleton's mind. Hadn't two of his chief mentors been Kim Philby and Anatoli Golitsyn?" Kim Philby had defected from the West to East, Golitsyn had defected from East to West. It was somewhat clever of Martin to bring these contrary elements together. But it wasn't altogether honest. Such was the tenor of Martin's writings about Angleton and Golitsyn. Martin took a negative view of Angleton for believing -- rather than suspecting -- there was a mole high up in the CIA. Martin said that Angleton "had taken suspicion and turned it into reality." Surely there was more to the story than this. I did not trust Martin's judgments because of the heavy handed anti-Angleton rhetoric. As a general rule I prefer to read the words of people involved directly in historical matters. Never dismiss someone entirely without giving them a full hearing. And never dismiss somebody because they are flawed or imperfect. That would leave us all in the position of dismissing everyone. Three years after I read Martin's book I stumbled upon Anatoliy Golitsyn's book, "New Lies for Old." Finally, I could read the other side of the story and form my own opinion. Golitsyn's book is actually about strategy, psychological warfare and how to organize the implements of deception (of higher, intellectual warfare). Various tricks are discussed in the book. One trick is that of pretending to be at odds with those you are secretly allied with. Another trick is to reorganize your society and declare your own defeat in order to disarm an opponent. These tricks are thoroughly discussed by Golitsyn, who is blessed with analytical and strategical understanding. After reading Golitsyn's portrayal of Soviet long range deception strategy I did not believe, even for a minute, that the Russians could successfully execute such elaborate strategies as Golitsyn described. As fascinating as the book was, as full of vital ideas, I did not think that any secret strategy could survive without exposure. Even if the West did not believe in a long range Soviet deception plan, once Soviet history began to move in the direction outlined by Golitsyn everyone would do a double-take, think back to Golitsyn's writings, and say to themselves: "Someone told us all about this years ago." The fact that Golitsyn had predicted a fake Soviet collapse, the fall of the Berlin Wall, the communists giving up power in the Soviet Union, would make it clear to the Russian strategists that any such plan would be recognized and thwarted. But three years after reading Golitsyn's book, in 1987, I was jolted into a new awareness. As a graduate student in political science I was reading through the defector literature. I was thinking of specializing in this area, and was working under a professor who later ran for president of a former Soviet republic. At this moment I happened upon a book, published in England in 1982, entitled "We Will Bury You." It was written by a Czech general named Jan Sejna, who had also worked closely with KGB General Dmitri Mironov, named by Golitsyn as one of the chief architects of Russia's long range deception plan. What made me sit bolt upright in my chair, was the fact that Sejna offered comfirmation of the existence of a long range communist bloc strategy. According to Sejna the Russian strategists were thinking of dissolving the communist bloc alliance in order to lull the West into a false sense of security. On page 108 of Sejna's book he wrote: "To this end we envisaged that it might be necessary to dissolve the Warsaw Pact, in which event we had already prepared a web of bilateral defence arrangements, to be supervised by secret committees of comecon." Having sat for a year in graduate seminars, listening to people who would soon work at the Rand Corporation presenting papers on the spread of communism, I suddenly realized that I'd been listening to a slew of young duffers. I'd heard so many judgments from scholars and "experts" that flew in the face of logic and reason I began to suspect human rationality itself. Had they not read this books? Had they not investigated this important point of corroboration between two defectors from differenent communist countries? If Golitsyn was right (and here he was confirmed by another defector in one part of his story), then there was a long range Soviet plan and, to the bargain, it was an article of faith -- pure and positive -- on the part of my academic brethren that no such plan could exist or did exist. One must always be a little afraid of smug certainties. It was this sudden merging of direct experience of our political science elite and defector testimony that jolted me out of my smug and very American frame of mind. I then became determined to read everything, consider every angle in order to test Golitsyn's overall thesis regarding a Soviet long range strategy to deceive and conquer the West. I had to know if there was something more out there to back this up. That was more than two years before 94 percent of Golitsyn's 1984 predictions about the communist bloc came true. Perhaps, with Angleton, I too am lost in the Wilderness of Mirrors. You may think so. You may even shake your head at me. Perhaps I am a crank, as many would say. One must always remain open-minded, since truth is difficult and we are poor observers and philosophers of it. That is my ultimate position. No mere mortal has a lock on truth I will write more of this fascinating subject, and where it led me, in my next column. web.archive.org/web/20020209020813/http://www.sierratimes.com/archive/files/aug/15/nyquist.htm
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907ie
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Post by 907ie on Feb 26, 2022 16:59:37 GMT -6
The Wilderness of Mirrors, Part II By J.R. Nyquist 08.21.01 Last week I discussed how, 14 years ago, I began to suspect that the Soviet empire was about to engineer its own collapse for deceptive strategic purposes. As KGB defector Anatoliy Golitsyn predicted in his 1984 book, "New Lies for Old*, "The 'liberalization' [in the communist bloc] would be spectacular and impressive." Golitsyn even wrote of "a reduction in the communist party's role; its monopoly [of power] would be apparently curtailed." According to researcher Mark Riebling, Golitsyn made 148 "falsifiable predictions" about future changes in the Soviet empire. By the end of 1993, according to Riebling, "139 out of 148 [of Golitsyn's predictions] were fulfilled." Since then over 140 out of the original 148 predictions have come true, giving Golitsyn an accuracy rating above 94 percent. As I explained last week, Golitsyn's claims about a long range Soviet deception strategy were not credible to me in 1984. But in 1987 I discovered corroborating testimony in the memoirs of another East Bloc defector -- Jan Sejna. According to Sejna the fake collapse of the Warsaw Pact was being contemplated by Kremlin strategists in 1967, who confided their plans to top Czech officials. This discovery led me to read more thoroughly, and to discover more pieces to the puzzle. In 1987 Brian D. Dailey and Patrick J. Parker brought forward a volume of scholarly articles entitled "Soviet Strategic Deception." In going over this text I found the following statement by intelligence researcher John Dziak, who wrote: "It should be stressed that Golitsyn was not the only source talking about long-term deception planning and operations." Aside from listing Jan Sejna as confirming a long-term deception strategy, Dziak mentions Ladislav Bittman, an intelligence officer who worked with the Russians in coordinating their plans. Dziak's article was extremely illuminating, as are the works of researcher Joseph D. Douglass, Jr., and others who grasped the importance of defector testimony on deception. Clearly, some scholars and experts -- Reibling, Douglass and Dziak -- are aware of the existence of a long range Russian strategy. It is one thing to fool the public, but it is another thing to fool the intelligence professionals, statesmen and scholars. Even so, most of today's scholars and "experts" would disagree with Reibling and Douglass. In fact, they would write them off as "out of touch." Could the strategists of the Kremlin successfully deceive professional observers and strategists in the West? If Soviet deception strategy is real, it can only exist by feeding off Western delusions and preconceptions. In this regard, the dominant philosophy of the West is liberalism, which might well be characterized as large body of delusional thought. Even more to the point, liberalism is the mother's milk of the administrative staff of leading corporations and government. To a large extent, the academic teachings of liberalism have influenced all professions and all professionals. Even professed conservatives cannot free their minds from the poisonous intellectual undercurrents of liberalism. Therefore, the Russian strategists needed only to aim their lies at the preconceptions of the liberal. The liberal believes in "people power," and "democracy." But democracy is merely a form, and is not the true substance of the elected leadership themselves. The communists realized that if they handpicked the democrats and set them into power, the resulting democracy would not disturb the operations of the secret police or the inner deliberations of the Communist Party Central Committee. To fool the West's experts was only a bit more complicated than fooling the general public. There is also another factor: the decay of intellectual integrity in Western elites. The intellectual bureaucrat is a careerist. His judgment is not truly independent. Many are educated in modern society, but there are a limited number of slots for experts. Consequently, there is a temptation to tell the powerful what they want to hear. In addition, organizational uniformity and standardization have reached a high degree of perfection. Modern Westerners attend regimented public schools where they are fed staple ideas. They watch the same television programs and are influenced by the same commercials. The expert is often no different. He too must socially adjust himself to the views of others or face the consequences. The experts depend, as well, on the West's intelligence services to provide them with raw data. If the intelligence scholars of the West are susceptible to deception, it can only be on account of massive intelligence failures as well as analytical failures. It is not merely the blinding assumptions of liberalism at work, but the basic inability of the FBI and CIA to cope with the GRU and KGB. In 1987 the effectiveness of Western intelligence versus Russia was called into question by a former assistant director of MI5, Peter Wright. The "Spycatcher" scandal caused ripples. The conservative government of Prime Minister Thatcher banned Wright's memoirs. Instead of concern for the effectiveness of the intelligence services, there was -- in essence -- a coverup of the legacy of incompetence and impotence of those services. Wright's revelations about moles in high places and the general collapse of effective counter-intelligence in the West suggests a weakness that Kremlin deception strategists might well exploit. The communist penetrations of the British government and intelligence services simply cannot be set aside. And the British were much tighter in their security than the Americans. "At least the Brits catch their moles," one professional quipped. The "Spycatcher" scandal exposed the truth about Western intelligence. "I was morose," confessed Wright at the end of his memoirs. "I was on the losing side." And what had won? It was an attitude that balked security, that shook its head at the very idea of Soviet penetration agents. It was the attitude that brought us Aldrich Ames at the CIA and Robert Hanssen at the FBI -- traitors who effectively blinded U.S. intelligence by killing off nearly all U.S. spies operating in Eastern Europe. Do you really think the KGB is unable to fool Western agencies staffed with KGB-run moles and plants? Many readers, of course, will object to this analysis. They will explain, in all innocence, that communism really did collapse in Eastern Europe. Democracies have emerged in Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. Golitsyn's claim that these collapses were "false," or "controlled" have no merit because whatever the KGB might have planned in in the 1960s, things turned out quite differently. Last weekend I received intelligence from the Czech Republic about the ongoing power of the secret police and the communists. This information can be accessed on my Web site, www.JRNyquist.com, and involves the jailing and persecution of dissidents. In this respect, nothing has changed in the "former" Soviet satellites. I have received similar correspondence from Poland, Russia and Romania in recent years. Many East Europeans have written to explain that the economy in their respective countries is yet under communist control, that the leading military officers are "hard liners," and that the new "democratic" politicians are either agents of the secret police, false fronts or outright former communist functionaries. East European leaders like Lech Walesa and Vaclav Havel may appear to be credible democrats at first glance, but Walesa has been publicly accused of having intimate ties to the secret police, and Havel's secret police file has mysteriously "disappeared" from the archives. In the case of the Romanian Revolution, most Americans never read Andrei Codrescu's book, "The Hole in the Flag." According to Codrescu, communism was not overthrown by the Romanian people, but by agents of Moscow imbedded in the Romanian communist establishment. The real history of the revolutions in Eastern Europe has yet to be written. Watching events in Eastern Europe with Golitsyn's warnings in mind, the evidence is strongly in favor of the thesis that the communist system was collapsed intentionally on orders from Moscow. What objectives could Russia possibly achieve by "defeating itself" in the Cold War. Watch for next week's column, in which I will explore the significance of these events in greater detail. web.archive.org/web/20020209021259/http://www.sierratimes.com/archive/files/aug/21/nyquist.htm
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907ie
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Post by 907ie on Feb 26, 2022 17:01:52 GMT -6
Not all Conspiracy Theories are Created Equal By J.R. Nyquist 08.28.01 Notes on interpretations of recent political history Some propositions are so flexible as to be circular; as such, every fact reinforces the proposition and no possible fact is ever taken to refute it. Such propositions are impossible to argue against or examine scientifically because, in principle, they are built on an unassailable basis. Suppose there is a theory: (1) all swans are white. The founder of this theory is an expert who has examined 10,000 swans on five continents. Every swan he has seen is white. He writes eight volumes documenting the whiteness of swans. He claims, furthermore, that this is beyond dispute. However, another researcher finds black swans in Australia. When confronted with this discovery the founder of the theory decries it is "impossible." The theory that all swans are white is well established. If they are black, they are not swans. Among our political writers we are blessed with many who say that all swans are white, and turn this into a logical proposition. All swans are white, therefore any non-white swan is not a swan. Very logical, indeed, put hardly honest. Here the assumption proves the conclusion and the conclusion proves the assumption. There is no appeal beyond this circle, no appeal to the realm of fact. But if we want to be reasonable and open-minded, we must admit that any generalization from specific facts (e.g., 10,000 white swans) is vulnerable to the discovery that contradicts the generalization, making it untrue. We humans are not omniscient. There are gaps in our knowledge. Some facts are unknown to us, like the existence of black swans. Therefore, when we put forward a theory, and this includes conspiracy theories, we must take care to avoid circular formulations. We must ask ourselves what a black swan would be, in this case, to our white swan. What fact or discovery would fatally wound our theory? Recently I had the occasion to ask a lady author and conspiracy theorist what might be the equivalent of a black swan for her. She had no answer. Such methods do not apply to her inquiry. As she explained, she was setting out to prove what she already knew to be true. I put the same question to another conspiracy theorist, who is an excellent researcher, but he had no answer. My argument to them was quite simple: If no fact disproving their "elite conspiracy" hypothesis is conceivable in principle, then their argument is probably based on circular logic, not strict empirical observation. In fact, their hypothesis is not an hypothesis at all, but a faith or dogma which is never to be challenged or questioned by critical methods. Not all conspiracy theories, however, are based on circular reasoning. Not all position themselves above critical examination and refutation. KGB defector Anatoliy Golitsyn, who alleges a Kremlin long-range plan against the United States, offered a number of falsifiable predictions about the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe and the manner in which it would happen. Had these predictions failed to come true his hypothesis would have been falsified. Such a failure would have been the equivalent of a black swan. It is my challenge to those who are inspired by elite conspiracy theory, drawing sustenance from works like "None Dare Call it Conspiracy" and "The Shadows of Power," to say what their black swan would be. What fact, if proved, would upset their thesis. If no such fact can be imagined, then perhaps their theory does not depend on fact at all, but is an universal interpretation which can be applied to all human facts (as mustard might be applied to all food). Most conspiracy theorists have yet to suggest what discovery might lead them to change their mind. It is my observation that whatever future event occurs, whatever fact is discovered, their notions can be flexibly fitted to the occasion. If a politician rises, it is proof there is a conspiracy. If that same politician falls, it is also proof. If a president is assassinated, we see the hand of the Satanic cabal. If he survives assassination, he has come over the cabal's side. When a Nazi official in the 1930s brought proof to Adolf Hitler that "The Protocols of the Elders of Zion" was a forgery, Hitler's reply was: "It doesn't matter. The Protocols are still true in principle." Conspiracy theory, for Hitler, was a statement of faith - the furtive fallacy of those who cynically believe that history is a chronicle of nefarious dealings, plots and subterfuge; that all events are explicable by a reference to a common plot. In Hitler's case, it was a "Jewish-Masonic" conspiracy. For Robert Welch, founder of the John Birch Society, conspiracy theory is due to the mysterious Illuminati. There are many amendments to the basic conspiratorial line. Except for the occasional third rate historian (like Carroll Quigley), or the fourth rate Nazi or Marxist thinker, no great and distinguished mind has yet embraced "conspiracy theory" if we look back at the great thinkers of the past two centuries. Works of acknowledged scholarship, erudition and literary skill do not reflect this theory. And this has to be accounted for, if indeed conspiracy theory is true. Rather than seeing organizations and movements inspired by liberal and utopian notions, the conspiracy theorist see a nefarious plot to enslave mankind under a global totalitarian state. Who, specifically, wants to create such an enslavement? Answer: The rich and powerful, the most respected names in the United States and Europe, the people who (as it turns out) already rule the world. In conspiracy literature the words and deeds of the enviable upper class are given an uncharitable coloration. Wars, assassination and economic difficulties are ascribed to malevolent cunning. Even the moves of the West's enemies are credited to these plotters. If the conspirators oppose Russia, they are playing a dialectical game and the Cold War itself is decried as "phony." If these same people turn around to support and appease Russia, they are proving their totalitarian credentials. Their real motivations, thoughts and plans are never properly examined in an objective way. Always, the conspiracy theorist knows these people are villains from the outset, and he/she knows what they are up to. Their least errors prove their evil genius. Their greatest bungles are without the least stupidity. Their inability to deal with insuperable is always cunning and by design. The plotters are building their power. The global dictatorship is getting closer by the day. This analysis does not take into account the complex interplay of forces which constitute the simplest social formation. Today we have a civilization which daily moves millions upon millions of barrels of oil from one part of the world to another. If this flow stopped for any reason there would be a catastrophe. Yet the machinery functions, and must continue to function, moving faster and faster. The plotting and scheming which allows the machine to move is thought to be nefarious. Yet abundance is produced by this machine on a scale never before seen. We have before us a society more permissive than dictatorial, more lenient than harsh and more liberal than fascist. Yet the conspiracy theorists decry its totalitarianism. To accuse the leadership of this amazingly vibrant, productive and decadent civilization of unleashing a plot to purposely smash the engine which they themselves have sweat to build and maintain, is to propose a contradiction. It is an odd conspiracy which, after a hundred or two hundred years, intentionally produces prosperity when it is alleged to be conspiring for pauperization. It is much simpler to theorize, instead, that the utopian projects of liberal civilization stem from the intellectual errors of the liberals themselves (i.e., the assumed perfectibility of humanity). Let it be noted that human beings often use their prosperity and power unwisely. This, in fact, is quite common and not at all extraordinary. No conspiracy theory is needed to account for the evils we see around us today. We are all-in-all sufficient to create such problems simply by "being ourselves." When the next great economic crash comes (and perhaps it is upon us, even now), when the economy suffers a grand correction, it will not be due to the machinations of conspirators - foreign or domestic (though our enemies may give us a strong push if they can). It will be due to the excessive economic optimism which debased all rational calculation and encouraged an economy of moonbeam farms. That being said, there are sophisticated international players who would be happy to give our civilization a "push" - as it were - into the abyss. Naturally, these are players who reside outside the West. At the same time, the leaders who sit on top of a civilized structure, to the extent that they are conscious of the great process around them, understand that they have everything to lose and little to gain from the destabilization of that structure. They already possess not just power, but the prestige of standing at the head of the most successful economic and political formation yet known to history. These leaders, despite flirtations with utopian liberalism, are profoundly conservative when they sense a threat to their own position. In the recent past, many in the U.S. elite were genuinely frightened of the arms race and the possibility of nuclear conflagration. The search for peace, the belief in the soothing influence of international commerce, led these players to open doors that should never have been opened - to China, for example. And these same players were eager - if not over-eager - to hear noises of contrition from the communists, if not rumbles of collapse. web.archive.org/web/20020213060918/http://www.sierratimes.com/archive/files/aug/28/nyquist.htm
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907ie
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Post by 907ie on Feb 26, 2022 17:06:41 GMT -6
The New Totalitarians By J.R. Nyquist 09.11.01 You watch the advance of socialism and scratch your head. Didn't we defeat the "scientific socialists" in the Cold War? Wasn't Marxism-Leninism discredited many years ago? Didn't the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics collapse? Hold on a minute. If all this happened then from what fountainhead is today's political correctness oozing? How did so many Western leaders with Marxist backgrounds -- Schroeder in Germany or Blair in England -- come to power? And for that matter, who let all these leftists dressed as moderates into the U.S. Government? Consider, as well, another set of questions: Why has Russia signed a friendship treaty with China? Why has Russia obligated itself in that treaty to attack the United States if U.S. Naval forces act to prevent an invasion or blockade of Taiwan? Not only have Russia and China come together, but many communist countries are drawing together at this time -- China and Vietnam, China and Cuba, China and North Korea, North Korea and Congo, etc. Considering all this, maybe socialism didn't collapse. Maybe it took a refreshing nap, burped a few victims and now emerges with a greater appetite than ever. We've seen the military warmups in Chechnya, the war exercises off Taiwan, the massive North Korean buildup along the DMZ. Could it be? I get letters from people who say I'm paranoid. But let's look at the facts. Let's look behind the headlines, to the untold story of a "former" communist bloc country -- the Czech Republic. Yesterday independent Czech journalist Josef Bilek was interveiwed by Betsy Gibson on the Barry Farber Show (www.talkradionetwork.com). Mr. Bilek had a strange tale to tell. Things aren't as they appear in Eastern and Central Europe. Vaclav Havel is not the great democrat he pretends to be. According to Bilek, practically no communists were prosecuted for crimes committed during the "era of totalitarianism." Who, instead, is now facing prosecution in the Czech Republic? Bilek's reason for appearing on American talk radio was to discuss the arrest and imprisonment of an innocent anti-communist, Capt. Vladimir Hucin, an officer of the Czech Intelligence Service (B.I.S.) who was in the midst of uncovering hidden communist structures in the Czech state. As it turns out, the state administration was eager to prevent Hucin's evidence from emerging into the light of day. Hucin was arrested on March 7th. Media access has been denied to those who support his release. Authorities in Prague are now desperately attempting to locate and muzzle Hucin's sources of information. They are determined to prevent the world from knowing the truth about the collapse of communism. The truth is, communism did not collapse -- it shapeshifted. Six charges have been leveled at Hucin, all of them misdemeanors which have kept him in prison since March 7th. During this time he has been denied a speedy trial. He has been denied bail, as if he were a dangerous criminal. The state's case is so pathetic that "other means" are being devised to permanently silence the defendant. In fact, the judge has decided to put Hucin under psychiatric observation, so he can be declared insane. Lock him in a psychiatric prison and throw away the key. Hucin's own words about his impirsonment show a clarity of thought, a heroism of purpose, that suggests a state of mind other than insanity. "In my view," stated Hucin, "the exposing of communist crimes should be done openly in front of the public and media." What does one do, however, if the media is under clandestine communist control? How can mere citizens defeat a murder machine that has now become a deception machine? The Czech people suffered under a brutal communist dictatorship for over 40 years. In central Europe the communists sentenced hundreds of thousands of people to labor camps, including children as young as thirteen and men as old as eighty. Thousands were murdered and tortured. Hundreds of thousands of lives were ruined. The secret police (Statni Bezecnost or StB) terrorized the citizens after the fashion of the Russian KGB. One of the leading communists in Czechoslovakia, Klement Gottwald, bragged in 1929, "We are the party of the Czechoslovakian proletariat, and naturally our supreme revolutionary headquarters is in Moscow. And you know very well why we go to Moscow: we go there to learn from the Russian Bolsheviks how to wring your necks." Where is the punishment for these murderers if, indeed, the murder regime was overthrown? "I understand that the conspiracy against me," stated Capt. Hucin, "with the help of the B.I.S., police and state prosecution office, is remarkably cunning." The communists have learned to mask themselves behind a democratic facade. "These are communist criminals who are hiding behind the veil of democracy," noted Hucin, "who till this day operate on the highest levels in various posts." This is the dark secret the East European mafia doesn't want America to know. Vladimir Hucin is in prison so that YOU can be kept in ignorance. That is the bottom line. "I was working on the problems of subversion, malfunction of the state administration, and I have come across some very disturbing information which also relates to the state prosecution office in Prerov, and I can prove it," claimed Hucin. The reason this man has been imprisoned is clear. Communism lives and reigns in the Czech Republic, in Russia, in Ukraine, in Poland, etc. The West is asleep and disarming. The East is quietly preparing. If you are interested in protesting Vladimir Hucin's imprisonment, please write to dcprotestcoordinator@hotmail.com and keep hope alive. If there is no freedom in the Czech Republic, if the communists are still in charge, it could mean that freedom is imperiled everywhere. web.archive.org/web/20020202193047/http://www.sierratimes.com/archive/files/sep/11/nyquist.htm.......................................................................................................................................................................... IF you hadn't noticed the dates on these last four articles, please go back and have a look!!!!!!!!! ..........................................................................................................................................................................
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